Crypto investors are looking for signs of their ideal situation: that inflation is decreasing without causing a major recession. Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped slightly more than expected, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is still likely to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). The FedWatch tool, which gauges sentiment about interest rate decisions, has risen above 97%, and multiple bank officials have maintained that inflation is still a threat.
This week, investors will be watching retail, industrial productivity, home sales, and jobless claims data for further signs of economic growth. On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Department will release June retail sales, with consensus for a 0.5% rise. The same day, the Fed will release Industrial Production figures for May. On Thursday, the Labor Department will release weekly jobless claims, and the National Association of Realtors will publish its June report on existing home sales.
Big banks will also be reporting their earnings this week, with JPMorgan Chase net income and revenue surging 67% and 34%, respectively. Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Charles Schwab (SCHW), PNC Financial Services (PNC), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) will report on Tuesday, while Goldman Sachs (GS) will report the following day.
Monetary hawkishness has tended to weigh on crypto prices, raising investor angst about central bank overstep, said crypto investors.