The 30-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the 10-year U.S. inflation-indexed security turned negative this month, declining from +0.28 to -0.72, a level last seen in April, according to charting platform TradingView.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. inflation-adjusted bond yield are again moving in opposite directions, exhibiting the strongest negative correlation in four months. This indicates the renewed influence of traditional finance and macro factors on the bitcoin price. The yield on the 10-year U.S. inflation-indexed security rose to 1.97% last week, the highest since February 2009, while bitcoin fell over 10%, registering its most significant weekly decline since early November.
Treasury inflation-indexed securities are indexed to inflation – the non-seasonally adjusted U.S. city average of all items consumer price index for all urban consumers. When real yields are negative, investors tend to seek returns from high-risk alternatives like technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. When real yields are positive and rising, investors feel encouraged to invest in fixed-income securities.
The outlook for risk assets, in general, has worsened due to hardening real yields, rising energy costs, concerns about China’s economy and major central banks’ commitment to keep borrowing costs higher. Gold, known to have an inverse relationship with real yields, fell more than 1%, its fourth straight weekly decline, and Nasdaq dropped 2.22%.