Dan Morehead, founder of crypto investment firm Pantera Capital, wrote that Bitcoin (BTC) this summer completed its longest-ever period of negative year-over-year returns. Our view is that we’ve seen enough, Morehead wrote. There’s just so long markets can be down. As of June 12, Morehead said, the price of bitcoin had been negative on a year-over-year basis for 15 consecutive months (starting Feb. 8, 2022). Prior to this, the longest period had been less than a year (Nov. 14, 2014, to Oct. 31, 2015).
Despite last week’s tumble from the near-$30,000 level, Bitcoin is, as of Wednesday, up more than 20% year-over-year. Morehead noted that July’s positive court ruling on the XRP token for Ripple Labs still stands, as do endorsements from BlackRock, Fidelity, and other asset managers in the form of their spot bitcoin ETF applications. He also mentioned the upcoming April 2024 halving at which the BTC block reward for mining fresh blocks will be cut in half. Morehead isn’t buying the efficient market hypothesis that the halving is so widely known that its effect has already been reflected in pricing. If the demand for bitcoins stays constant and the supply of new bitcoins is cut in half, this will force the price up, said Morehead. His models suggest bitcoin bottomed for good late last year, should hit around $35,500 by the April 2024 halving and nearly $150,000 by late 2025.