In Wednesday night’s first debate for the 2024 U.S. Republican presidential nomination, candidates swapped barbs in an attempt to steal the spotlight from former President Donald Trump, the party’s clear front-runner, who opted to skip out on the debate in favor of an interview with recently ousted Fox News host Tucker Carlson, said blockchain-based betting platforms like Polymarket and Manifold. These platforms allow users to bet on practically anything, providing an interesting bellwether of public opinion.
Polymarket, the largest blockchain-based prediction market, has seen nearly $5 million bet on the outcome of the Republican nomination race, despite the fact that it is illegal to use for placing bets in the United States. Despite the debate, the betting lines have been relatively stationary. However, one might expect to see more betting activity (and volatility) as the race progresses given the amount of money that has already flooded the platform.
Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner according to Polymarket, with it costing 71 cents to bet in favor of a second Trump nomination and 32 cents to bet against. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis entered last night’s debate with the most to win and the most to lose, but his debate performance didn’t immediately appear to move the mark all that much. In the past week, votes in favor of DeSantis have decreased from 14 cents to 12 cents.
Entrepreneur and right-wing political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy, however, was generally lauded by pundits after last night’s debate for managing to distinguish himself in a field of better-known politicians. Over the past week, bets in favor of Ramaswamy have increased in price from 13 cents to 16 cents.
Blockchain betting platforms have seen a surge in activity recently, with bettors in non-blockchain prediction markets reportedly putting more than $200 million on the line to speculate about the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. When South Korean scientists claimed to have discovered the first room-temperature superconductor in a pre-release research paper last month, bettors took to Polymarket and Manifold to suss out fact from fiction.