The comparison of internet adoption to crypto adoption has been made, with many believing that crypto is adding new users at a pace similar to the internet’s 1990s growth. This has led to predictions that crypto could reach 5 billion users around 2047. However, I’d argue that’s too optimistic, says one analyst. The internet is too broad for comparison, and crypto has many use cases, but for the average consumer, it is either a speculative investment or a means of transferring value.
A bottom-up approach to analyze adoption is recommended, looking at consumer behaviors from comparable use cases. For example, the adoption of financial services technologies. After 26 years, less than 50% of the world uses mobile banking, and only about a third of Americans actively invest in stocks. This should make us question crypto’s growth trajectory beyond early adopters.
Even with population growth, crypto may struggle to reach 5 billion users by 2047, says the analyst. A more conservative back-of-the-envelope estimate is a range of 2 billion to 3 billion users, and that’s if regulation doesn’t get in the way. Crypto has to beat (or join) the current way of doing things, which is still advancing and still not yet fully adopted.