This week’s economic data could have a significant impact on the inflation and interest rate outlook, and thus the prospects for Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. On Wednesday, the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s mid-June meeting of its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be released at 2 p.m. (ET). The Fed at that meeting paused its more than year-long series of rate hikes that had taken its benchmark fed funds rate to 5%-5.25% from 0% in early 2022. However, policymakers at the central bank currently expect to increase rates at least twice more in 2023.
On Thursday, the ADP Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. (ET). Forecasts are for a slowdown in private sector hiring to 160,000 jobs in June from 278,000 in May. The government’s initial jobless claims figure will be released shortly after, with economists forecasting Thursday’s report to show initial jobless claims at 245,000 versus 239,000 previously. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) will follow at 10:00 a.m. (ET). This number has edged lower over the past year, signaling a softening in the labor market. Forecasters are expecting Thursday’s print to show JOLTs at 9.9 million, down from 10.1 million previously.
The main event of the week will be the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for June, released Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. This gauge has topped expectations for an astounding 14 consecutive months, continuing to show strength in the face of surging interest rates. Economist forecasts are for 250,000 jobs to have been added in June, down from 339,000 in May. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain at 3.7%.
On Monday, the ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released, slowing to 46.0 in June from 46.9 previously and was the weakest level since May 2022. Numbers below 50 for this report are associated with contraction in the manufacturing sector, and this was the 7th-consecutive month below the 50 level.
The Fed at that meeting paused its more than year-long series of rate hikes that had taken its benchmark fed funds rate to 5%-5.25% from 0% in early 2022, said Fed Chairman Jay Powell. Policymakers at the central bank currently expect to increase rates at least twice more in 2023.